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Calls For 2025 Government Spending Adjustments, Copom Minutes Due Tomorrow

BRAZIL
  • Senator Confucio Moura said in an interview with Valor that the 2025 budget guidelines law needs spending adjustments, but they must be made gradually to avoid political resistance. He said that these adjustments should come from the Finance Ministry and could be made by freezing the budget to limit spending, rather than making cuts.
  • Aided by a softer greenback today, BRL remains around 0.8% firmer against the dollar, keeping USDBRL below the 5.40 level. Initial support to watch lies at 5.342, the 20-day EMA. DI swap rates have also rallied, with yields down c.7bp across much of the curve.
  • Tomorrow, the BCB is due to publish the minutes to last week’s Copom meeting, when the Selic rate was unanimously held at 10.50%. Goldman Sachs will be looking first and foremost for an evaluation of the macro backdrop and overall balance of risks for inflation. In this regard, they will be looking to see if one or more directors are of the view that the balance of risks for inflation are now skewed to the upside, rather than neutral. They will also be looking for any discussion about a potential state-of-the-world that would demand rate hikes.

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