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Calm after yesterday's storm

STIR FUTURES

After yesterday's big moves in STIR futures (SONIA futures up to 28 ticks higher, Eurodollar futures up to 21.5 ticks higher and Euribor futures up to 16 ticks higher), this morning we have seen some pullback in Eurodollar Whites, but other moves have been limited to a couple of ticks. As we noted in earlier bullets, the PMI data is likely to be the biggest driver for markets this morning, although we will probably need a decent surprise to get a substantial move.

  • For the BOE, markets now pricing about 53bp for August (from 56bp on Tuesday and high of 61bp post-MPC meeting), 96bp (cumulatively) by September, 145bp by November and 178bp by year-end.
  • For the ECB, markets price 31bp for July, 85bp by September and 170bp by year-end.
  • For the Fed, around 71bp is priced for July (up 2bp from yesterday's low around 69bp), 134bp (cumulatively) by September and 194by by year-end (around 5bp higher than yesterday's low).

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