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Calm Before The Storm?

US TSYS SUMMARY

Treasuries have weakened in orderly fashion in European trading, with middling volumes (TYZ0 ~240k) to begin election day. Curve bear steepening as equities rally.

  • The 2-Yr yield is up 0.4bps at 0.1585%, 5-Yr is up 1.1bps at 0.3861%, 10-Yr is up 2.5bps at 0.8688%, and 30-Yr is up 3bps at 1.6467%. Dec 10-Yr futures (TY) down 4.5/32 at 138-5 (L: 138-02.5 / H: 138-11).
  • Dollar weaker (DXY -0.6%), equities up (S&P eminis +1.2%) in a risk-on move globally.
  • Unclear whether that price action is consistent with a 'blue wave' scenario in the election; UK bookmarkers' odds actually showed Biden dipping to lowest probability in weeks (~60% vs ~40% for Trump) this morning, though perhaps that's profit taking as it's back to about 62%-38%.
  • We put out our Fed/Election preview yesterday, as well as an election viewers' guide with timings for poll closings and what to watch on the night - let us know if you want a copy.
  • Don't forget, data today too: 1000ET sees Sept Factory orders/final durable goods.
  • In supply, $94B split across two auctions and three bills ($60B of 42-/119-day at 1130ET, $34B of 52-Wk at 1300ET).
  • NY Fed buys ~$6.025B of 4.5-7Y Tsys before taking a couple of days off for the FOMC 2-day meeting.
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BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

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