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Chinese markets will return today after having being closed for the past five sessions for the Golden Week holiday which should help liquidity in the region. Despite the return of Chinese participants, markets are bedding in for a subdued session with early signs of the pre-NFP malaise evident. The tone is positive early on as markets assess US political machinations as an agreement on the debt ceiling inches closer.

  • NZD is the early winner with gains of a handful of pips after underperforming on Thursday. In Australia markets await the release of the RBA's financial stability review.
  • JPY a handful of pips weaker, but largely unreactive to a raft of Japanese data. Household spending fell more than expected, though labour cash earnings rose above estimates. The trade balance was broadly in line with estimates. PM Kishida will deliver his first policy address to lawmakers today, indications are the new administration could raise the capital gains tax to 25% from the current 20% without affecting stock prices and pointed to the need for a >Y30tn fiscal spending package.
  • Markets await the aforementioned RBA financial stability review, China's Caixin services PMI while later in the day US nonfarm payrolls release is in focus, with markets expecting job gains of 500k over the month of September, equating to a drop of 0.1ppts in the unemployment rate. Also due is Canada's latest labour market report. ECB's Lagarde also makes an appearance, speaking alongside US Treasury Secretary Yellen.