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Can Equities Rebound Higher If BRL Keeps Weakening?

BRAZIL
  • We previously saw that one of the major risks for EM equities was a constant appreciation of the USD as Fed prepares for tapering.
  • The USD has been rising broadly since June, which led to a constant depreciation on the BRL, down 5.5% against the greenback since then.
  • As a result, Brazilian equities have also been consolidating lower in the past 4 months, down nearly 15% since its record high reached in early June.
  • The chart below shows that periods of BRL weakness have usually been associated with falling equities (and vice versa).
  • Hence, can Brazilian equities rebound higher if USD keeps strengthening ?

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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