###Can we expect large impact on Gilts if.....>

GILTS: ###Can we expect large impact on Gilts if EU announces there has been

enough progress on Brexit next week?

- POV: If the EU announces Brexit negotiations can indeed moved forward despite

questions hanging over Irish boarder, this might come as an initial surprise and

weigh heavily on Gilts, as markets react favourably to the news. However this

might not be such good news for UK economy the markets will be hoping for. 

- The initial phase of talks were meant to be relatively straight forward and

conclude quickly while the type of new relationship between the UK and EU after

Brexit the hard part. If it took nearly 9-months to not quite sort out the first

part, how long will it take to work out the second. This is unlikely to give the

certainty business need, even if there is an agreement of a 2-year transition

deal early in 2018.

- There are so many variables that it could be Gilts become some sort of safe

haven until there is more certainty what the final outcome of the negotiations

will be, which could be many years. Will Non-UK financial institutions wait that

long? It's starting to not look that way as the EU/ECB put their foot down.