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CANADA: Analysts See Door Wide Open For Further BoC Cuts

CANADA
  • BMO: “The July CPI report should further cement a 25 bp rate cut from the BoC in September. There's no urgency for policymakers to act more aggressively at this point, but rate cuts will keep coming as inflation continues to move toward 2% and the economy sports a sizeable output gap.”
  • CIBC: “Door to further cuts remains wide open. Inflationary pressures continue to fade, and were it not for the continued upward pressure from mortgage interest costs inflation would have been in-line with a 2% target in every month since the start of the year. With inflation appearing to be under control, the BoC has more leeway to set policy in response to downside risks to the economy stemming from the rise in the unemployment rate. We continue to forecast three further 25bp interest rate cuts at the remaining BoC meetings of 2024.”
  • RBC: “Today’s CPI print should be enough to quell concerns about sticky inflation pressures in Canada after two marginal upside surprises in May and June. Readings were unequivocally weak – with slowing evident among all core CPI measures. The scope of price pressures also continued to normalize […] The hurdle for more BoC cuts this year is low and we continue to look for another 25 basis point cut at their next meeting in September.”
  • TD: “The BoC makes its next rate announcement in two weeks and there is nothing stopping the bank from cutting rates by another 25bps. With inflation risks fading, the central bank's focus has pivoted to weakness in the rest of the economy. Indeed, consumer spending looks to have taken a breather alongside a steady deterioration in the jobs market. Given that the policy rate remains at restrictive levels, even after two rate cuts in June/July, there is plenty of room for the BoC to keep cutting over the rest of this year.”
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