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CANADA: CAD Outperforms Through Strike Disruption [1/2]

CANADA
  • USDCAD is close to 1.3600 having sat either side of it today along with gyrations in equity markets. 
  • It earlier set a new recent low of 1.3572, more firmly clearing a key support at 1.3589 (Jul 11 low) to open 1.3547 (Apr 9 low), before US and Canadian desks joined.  
  • CAD again outperforms high beta peers today, this time aided by USD strength, whilst a backdrop of already historically large CAD net shorts has limited reaction to dovish core CPI data (although at the same time a swing close to oversold territory for USDCAD for the first time since December can also limit the pace of declines ahead).
  • BoC-dated OIS still shows 28bp of cuts for Sept and 77.5bp to year-end, similar to after the modest dovish reaction to CAD CPI, whilst Can-US 2Y yield differentials have dipped less than 1bp since just before CAD CPI. 
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