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CANADA: Can-US Yield Differentials Shrug Off Softer CAD CPI

CANADA
  • Canadian rates have been largely resistance to today’s continued rally in the US, which extended after heavy preliminary downward revisions for benchmarking that will come early 2025. 
  • 2Y GoC yields are down just 1bp on the day vs 6bps for Tsys, with the Can-US yield differential rising 5bps to -67bps, of which 4.5bps has come since CAD CPI despite the softer than expected core readings. -67bps would be its highest close since Aug 7 and before that mid-July. 
  • BoC-dated OIS for near-term meetings meanwhile keeps to the modestly dovish fallout from CPI, with a 28bp cut for Sep and a cumulative 78bp over the three meetings left this year (i.e. bringing up 125bp of cuts for 2024 as a whole). 
  • There’s not much sign of additional flattening impulse from potentially significant rail strikes starting tomorrow, with 2s10s at -24.5bps (+1bp on the day) having bottomed earlier in the week at -26.8bps for lows since US payrolls.  

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