MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 31

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MNI: US REDBOOK: DEC STORE SALES +5.5% V YR AGO MO

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 1/3/6-Month UKTB Auction on Friday

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AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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CANADA DATA: Disappointing GDP Momentum Into Q4 [2/2]

CANADA DATA
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  • The more concerning aspect for the BoC will be the weakness in momentum heading into Q4.
  • Monthly real GDP growth was revised down to 0.1% M/M in September from the 0.3% M/M advance estimate. That was unexpected when looking at the median analyst forecast although BMO and Scotia had pointed to such a move, helped by the release of very weak hours worked data after the Sept flash.
  • It was doubly disappointing though as it was followed up by an advance estimate of just 0.1% M/M in October, despite signs of healthier activity in other advance indicators. The latter showed up in the details but “were partially offset by decreases in construction and mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction” per the press release.
  • It’s still early days for Q4 tracking, but the monthly industry data currently point to real GDP growth of just 0.8% annualized on a 3m/3m basis, far from the 2.0% the BoC forecast in the October MPR.
  • That follows the realized undershoot of the BoC forecast of 1.5% in Q3 with today's 1.0% [see part 1]. 
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  • The more concerning aspect for the BoC will be the weakness in momentum heading into Q4.
  • Monthly real GDP growth was revised down to 0.1% M/M in September from the 0.3% M/M advance estimate. That was unexpected when looking at the median analyst forecast although BMO and Scotia had pointed to such a move, helped by the release of very weak hours worked data after the Sept flash.
  • It was doubly disappointing though as it was followed up by an advance estimate of just 0.1% M/M in October, despite signs of healthier activity in other advance indicators. The latter showed up in the details but “were partially offset by decreases in construction and mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction” per the press release.
  • It’s still early days for Q4 tracking, but the monthly industry data currently point to real GDP growth of just 0.8% annualized on a 3m/3m basis, far from the 2.0% the BoC forecast in the October MPR.
  • That follows the realized undershoot of the BoC forecast of 1.5% in Q3 with today's 1.0% [see part 1].