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CANADA DATA: Housing Starts Trending Higher, More Needed To Help Shortages

CANADA DATA
  • Our policy team earlier noted the strength in housing starts, which increased by more than expected in July to a seasonally adjusted annualized 279.5k (cons 245k) from an essentially unrevised 242k in June. 
  • The 16% rise in overall starts extends a string of volatile months, which continue to be driven by urban multi-units (rising 21% in July after -13% in June and 13% in May). 
  • Looking through the noise, the latter do however appear to be trending higher so far this year, whilst urban single unit starts also increased for a fourth consecutive month.
  • The bottom line is that starts are starting to trend higher but still have a long way to go to alleviate housing shortages, especially after the population increased by more than 1.2million in 2023 and almost 250k in Q1. 
  • That said, yesterday’s existing home sales data meanwhile saw tepid sales (-0.7% M/M) which meant months of inventory maintained recent relative increase to help limit inflationary pressures from housing (the 4.2 months is the highest for a July post-pandemic and is closer to the 4.6-5.4 seen in the three years pre-pandemic).  

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