MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 31

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AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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CANADA DATA: Small Businesses Increasingly Optimistic (Pre-Tariffs)

CANADA DATA
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  • The CFIB business barometer saw small business confidence rise from 55.8 to 59.7 for its highest since mid-2022 as it approaches the historical average of 60.0.
  • Importantly, the survey was collected Nov 5-13 so captures the initial reaction to the US election results but not the latest impact from threats of 25% tariffs.
  • “Excluding agriculture (49.3), long-term optimism across most sectors ranges from the mid-50s to the 70s, indicating a broader economic recovery.”
  • Within the details, price expectations for the next year held steady at 2.5%. They have averaged 2.4% over the latest four months, at lows since early 2021 but compared to the 1.8% averaged in 2019.  
  • Wage expectations meanwhile cooled to 2.5% from the 2.7% in Oct (highest since May). This series averaged 1.7% in 2019 and 2.1% in 2017-18.
  • The responses of firms finding different levels of skilled labour as challenges to output gives insight into impacts seen from immigration strength in recent years. The share reporting un/semi-skilled labour as an obstable was just 17% in Nov, down from a post-pandemic peak of 42% to the low end of the pre-pandemic range. The skilled labour share meanwhile was still elevated at 44% vs a post-pandemic high of 53% and has only returned to the very high of the pre-pandemic range. 
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  • The CFIB business barometer saw small business confidence rise from 55.8 to 59.7 for its highest since mid-2022 as it approaches the historical average of 60.0.
  • Importantly, the survey was collected Nov 5-13 so captures the initial reaction to the US election results but not the latest impact from threats of 25% tariffs.
  • “Excluding agriculture (49.3), long-term optimism across most sectors ranges from the mid-50s to the 70s, indicating a broader economic recovery.”
  • Within the details, price expectations for the next year held steady at 2.5%. They have averaged 2.4% over the latest four months, at lows since early 2021 but compared to the 1.8% averaged in 2019.  
  • Wage expectations meanwhile cooled to 2.5% from the 2.7% in Oct (highest since May). This series averaged 1.7% in 2019 and 2.1% in 2017-18.
  • The responses of firms finding different levels of skilled labour as challenges to output gives insight into impacts seen from immigration strength in recent years. The share reporting un/semi-skilled labour as an obstable was just 17% in Nov, down from a post-pandemic peak of 42% to the low end of the pre-pandemic range. The skilled labour share meanwhile was still elevated at 44% vs a post-pandemic high of 53% and has only returned to the very high of the pre-pandemic range.