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CANADA DATA: Soft Payrolls And Normalized Vacancies vs Strong Wage Growth

CANADA DATA
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  • Payroll employment slid -57k back in September, its largest decline since Nov’23, after +17k in Aug (which StatCan defines as “little changed”) and +40k in Aug.
  • The three-month sum of -1k is in firm contrast to the 66k from the more timely labour force data which has since seen a 15k increase in October.  
  • Declines were seen in 9 sectors and were little changed in the remaining 11 (where many fell but by a non-statistically significant amount). Retail trade saw the heaviest decline at -13.2k in September.
  • More notably from the SEPH release, the vacancy rate inched a tenth higher to 3.0% in Sept after the 2.9% in Aug was the lowest since late 2017. This still marks a full normalisation to pre-pandemic trends though, having averaged in 3.2% 2019 and 3.0% in 2017-18 [bottom left chart].
  • Whilst jobs growth and vacancies provide dovish reads, payrolled wage growth does however mostly consolidate August’s strong acceleration. Hourly earnings growth only eased from 5.0% to 4.7% Y/Y whilst the fixed weight index that controls for composition changes was 5.2% after 6.0% Y/Y. The SEPH wage data had until recently been much weaker than those from the LFS [bottom right chart]. 
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  • Payroll employment slid -57k back in September, its largest decline since Nov’23, after +17k in Aug (which StatCan defines as “little changed”) and +40k in Aug.
  • The three-month sum of -1k is in firm contrast to the 66k from the more timely labour force data which has since seen a 15k increase in October.  
  • Declines were seen in 9 sectors and were little changed in the remaining 11 (where many fell but by a non-statistically significant amount). Retail trade saw the heaviest decline at -13.2k in September.
  • More notably from the SEPH release, the vacancy rate inched a tenth higher to 3.0% in Sept after the 2.9% in Aug was the lowest since late 2017. This still marks a full normalisation to pre-pandemic trends though, having averaged in 3.2% 2019 and 3.0% in 2017-18 [bottom left chart].
  • Whilst jobs growth and vacancies provide dovish reads, payrolled wage growth does however mostly consolidate August’s strong acceleration. Hourly earnings growth only eased from 5.0% to 4.7% Y/Y whilst the fixed weight index that controls for composition changes was 5.2% after 6.0% Y/Y. The SEPH wage data had until recently been much weaker than those from the LFS [bottom right chart].