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CANADA: Government Aiming For Unprecedented Negative Population Growth

CANADA
CanadaNorth AmericaBulletGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets
  • Immigration Minister Miller has proposed final immigration targets after the National Post first reported on some details yesterday before Bloomberg ran a sources piece.
  • The fuller details now paint the way for a sharp correction in Canadian population growth, seen declining by 0.2% in both 2025 and 2026 before planned modest population growth of 0.8% in 2017.
  • That compares with the 3% Y/Y or 2.5% annualized as of 2Q24.
  • If realized, it would be the first decline in annual population growth in data going back to the early 1950s.
  • The permanent resident target will be cut to 395k in 2025 (from its previous goal of 500k set last year and an expected 485k for 2024) before 380k in 2026 and 365k in 2027.
  • It will also introduce its first target for non-permanent residents, seen declining by about 446k in 2025 and 2026, compared to 2023 levels of circa 800k, before a modest 17k increase in 2027.
  • See below charts for recent context: 
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  • Immigration Minister Miller has proposed final immigration targets after the National Post first reported on some details yesterday before Bloomberg ran a sources piece.
  • The fuller details now paint the way for a sharp correction in Canadian population growth, seen declining by 0.2% in both 2025 and 2026 before planned modest population growth of 0.8% in 2017.
  • That compares with the 3% Y/Y or 2.5% annualized as of 2Q24.
  • If realized, it would be the first decline in annual population growth in data going back to the early 1950s.
  • The permanent resident target will be cut to 395k in 2025 (from its previous goal of 500k set last year and an expected 485k for 2024) before 380k in 2026 and 365k in 2027.
  • It will also introduce its first target for non-permanent residents, seen declining by about 446k in 2025 and 2026, compared to 2023 levels of circa 800k, before a modest 17k increase in 2027.
  • See below charts for recent context: