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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessCANADA: Mixed GDP Doesn’t Alter Three Cuts Priced For BoC To Year-End
- GDP data hasn’t really moved the needle for BoC expectations, with still a little more than a 25bp cut priced for next week and broadly 75bp for the three meetings left this year.
- 2Y GoC yields have given back most of their initial increase, currently 1bp higher post-data but with the Can-US 2Y differential only -0.5bp at a still relatively elevated -59bps vs the past three months.
- USDCAD meanwhile continues to climb, pushing through 1.35 to a high of 1.3509 as it nears support at 1.3519 (Aug 26 high) and shifts away from oversold conditions.
- GDP growth was stronger than expected at 2.1% in Q2 (BBG cons 1.8% with highest estimate of 2.0% & BoC forecast 1.5%) along with a slightly upward revised 1.8% in Q1.
- However, there was a little less momentum heading into Q3 judging by monthly data. GDP growth was nudged lower to 0.0% in June (cons 0.1 but had been a close call with 0.0) after a downward revised 0.1% (initial 0.2) in May and with the July advance pointing to 0.0%.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.