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CANADA: Mixed GDP Doesn’t Alter Three Cuts Priced For BoC To Year-End

CANADA
  • GDP data hasn’t really moved the needle for BoC expectations, with still a little more than a 25bp cut priced for next week and broadly 75bp for the three meetings left this year.
  • 2Y GoC yields have given back most of their initial increase, currently 1bp higher post-data but with the Can-US 2Y differential only -0.5bp at a still relatively elevated -59bps vs the past three months.
  • USDCAD meanwhile continues to climb, pushing through 1.35 to a high of 1.3509 as it nears support at 1.3519 (Aug 26 high) and shifts away from oversold conditions.
  • GDP growth was stronger than expected at 2.1% in Q2 (BBG cons 1.8% with highest estimate of 2.0% & BoC forecast 1.5%) along with a slightly upward revised 1.8% in Q1.
  • However, there was a little less momentum heading into Q3 judging by monthly data. GDP growth was nudged lower to 0.0% in June (cons 0.1 but had been a close call with 0.0) after a downward revised 0.1% (initial 0.2) in May and with the July advance pointing to 0.0%. 

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