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CANADA: RBC Look For 150bp Of Cuts By Mid-2025

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  • RBC expect another 25bp cut to 4.25% after cutting in both June and July.
  • “Comments from Governor Macklem will likely again err on the dovish side, continuing to emphasize a softening economic backdrop that makes it more likely that inflation will keep trending lower.”
  • “CPI prints, although still important to the BoC’s consideration, are backward-looking and lag the economic backdrop that has continued to soften.”
  • “Governor Macklem reinforced after the last rate cut in July that the central bank is convinced inflation will continue to drift lower even if “there could be setbacks along the way,” but July CPI data also surprised on the downside.”
  • “Moving forward, the hurdle for more BoC rate cuts from what are still-elevated levels is low.” RBC assume another 150bp of cuts (including the expected September reduction) by mid-2025.
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  • RBC expect another 25bp cut to 4.25% after cutting in both June and July.
  • “Comments from Governor Macklem will likely again err on the dovish side, continuing to emphasize a softening economic backdrop that makes it more likely that inflation will keep trending lower.”
  • “CPI prints, although still important to the BoC’s consideration, are backward-looking and lag the economic backdrop that has continued to soften.”
  • “Governor Macklem reinforced after the last rate cut in July that the central bank is convinced inflation will continue to drift lower even if “there could be setbacks along the way,” but July CPI data also surprised on the downside.”
  • “Moving forward, the hurdle for more BoC rate cuts from what are still-elevated levels is low.” RBC assume another 150bp of cuts (including the expected September reduction) by mid-2025.