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OIL
The new TMX pipeline is set to open up options for Canadian crude exports from Q2 but Vortexa highlights some issues it may face.
- Argus reported that the pipeline had requested linefill in April and May, indicating its near start date.
- According to Vortexa, at present, almost all of Western Canadian heavy crude exported to non-US destinations is exported via the US Gulf Coast (2023 avg. ~200kbd).
- These volumes greatly eclipse those currently exported out of Vancouver (2023 avg. ~40kbd), which are mainly destined for refineries on the US West Coast.
- Another constraint to export crude from Western Canada is the capability of the port of Vancouver to handle high volumes from TMX start up according to Vortexa.
- They added that the port of Vancoouver has restrictions on draft (only able to load Aframaxes up to 600kb) while nighttime transits for laden tankers are not allowed.
- Pacific Northwest rough seas will also make ship-to-ship transfers difficult.
- Vortexa expect the biggest impact of the pipeline to be for US West Coast refiners – pushing out a number of LatAm suppliers such as Ecuador and Colombia.
Source: Vortexa
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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