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CANADA: Some Division Around Balance Of Risks In BoC Minutes

CANADA
  • The BoC’s Summary of Deliberations for the Sep 4 decision when the BoC cut 25bps for a third consecutive meeting unsurprisingly showed officials agreed that the economy needs above-potential growth to ensure inflation doesn’t undershoot.
  • There was some division around whether price risks were tilting to the downside though.
  • "Some members took the view that the risks were balanced”, "some had become more concerned with the downside risks to inflation, particularly if the economy and labour market weakened further" and “members observed that the housing market could still pick up more quickly than expected.”
  • Gov. Macklem had discussed the risks to the inflation outlook as broadly balanced at the Sep 4 press conference.
  • The minutes lacked specific detail on whether a scenario of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points was discussed, a prospect Macklem hinted at during his press conference.
  • Can-US 2Y yield differentials are 0.5bp higher since the release (at -69.5bp for the lower end of the range over the past month) as GoC yields move sideways whilst US yields dip a touch ahead of the FOMC decision. 
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  • The BoC’s Summary of Deliberations for the Sep 4 decision when the BoC cut 25bps for a third consecutive meeting unsurprisingly showed officials agreed that the economy needs above-potential growth to ensure inflation doesn’t undershoot.
  • There was some division around whether price risks were tilting to the downside though.
  • "Some members took the view that the risks were balanced”, "some had become more concerned with the downside risks to inflation, particularly if the economy and labour market weakened further" and “members observed that the housing market could still pick up more quickly than expected.”
  • Gov. Macklem had discussed the risks to the inflation outlook as broadly balanced at the Sep 4 press conference.
  • The minutes lacked specific detail on whether a scenario of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points was discussed, a prospect Macklem hinted at during his press conference.
  • Can-US 2Y yield differentials are 0.5bp higher since the release (at -69.5bp for the lower end of the range over the past month) as GoC yields move sideways whilst US yields dip a touch ahead of the FOMC decision.