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CANADA: Trudeau Faces Down Rebels, But Danger For PM Not Over Yet

CANADA
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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faced down a group of 24 rebel MPs within his governing Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) at a caucus meeting in Ottawa on 23 Oct. With Trudeau's minority gov't comprising 153 LPC lawmakers, the 24 members represnting just over 15% of his party caucus voted for him to stand down as leader amid flagging opinion polls and damaging by-election defeats. The number is lower than the 30-40 MPs that had been speculated upon prior to the meeting. Despite a smaller revolt than expected, the group assigned Trudeau a deadline of 28 October to announce his resignation albeit without any confirmation of what action they would look to take if the PM does not abide by the demand. 

  • The low number of rebels, combined with a strong result for the LPC-associated New Brunswick Liberal Association in that province's election on 21 Oct, could be seen as a positive sign for Trudeau and his gov't.
  • However, the PM is not out of the woods. The minority status of his gov't leaves it vulnerable to defeat in each parliamentary vote, while the looming threat of a no-confidence motion hangs over Trudeau. As CBC notes, "It's not clear what happens next. But for this generation of Liberals, their time left in power — or at least the time remaining to make an argument for re-election — might be measured in days or weeks. The next fixed election date is now less than a year away and you probably won't find anyone in Ottawa who thinks this Parliament will make it that far."
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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faced down a group of 24 rebel MPs within his governing Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) at a caucus meeting in Ottawa on 23 Oct. With Trudeau's minority gov't comprising 153 LPC lawmakers, the 24 members represnting just over 15% of his party caucus voted for him to stand down as leader amid flagging opinion polls and damaging by-election defeats. The number is lower than the 30-40 MPs that had been speculated upon prior to the meeting. Despite a smaller revolt than expected, the group assigned Trudeau a deadline of 28 October to announce his resignation albeit without any confirmation of what action they would look to take if the PM does not abide by the demand. 

  • The low number of rebels, combined with a strong result for the LPC-associated New Brunswick Liberal Association in that province's election on 21 Oct, could be seen as a positive sign for Trudeau and his gov't.
  • However, the PM is not out of the woods. The minority status of his gov't leaves it vulnerable to defeat in each parliamentary vote, while the looming threat of a no-confidence motion hangs over Trudeau. As CBC notes, "It's not clear what happens next. But for this generation of Liberals, their time left in power — or at least the time remaining to make an argument for re-election — might be measured in days or weeks. The next fixed election date is now less than a year away and you probably won't find anyone in Ottawa who thinks this Parliament will make it that far."