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CANADA: USDCAD Awaits Payrolls With Heavy Expiry Tilted Lower

CANADA
GlobalCanadaBulletMarketsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America
  • USDCAD sits near unchanged on the day at 1.3552 off an earlier high of 1.3568, with CAD underperforming most peers despite further WTI gains.
  • The pair consolidates a climb since mid-week which has left it close to resistance at 1.3584 (50-day EMA), after which lies a key 1.3647 (Sep 19 high). It has moved away from support at 1.3473 (Oct 2 low) and the bear trigger at 1.3420 (Sep 25 low).
  • It has been a light week for Canadian data and that only picks up next Fri with both the jobs report and BoC Q3 surveys, leaving today’s focus firmly on payrolls.
  • Note heavy option expiry for today’s NY cut, mostly tilting lower: C$1.3350-73($2.2bln), C$1.3500-05($1.2bln), C$1.3530-45($813mln), C$1.3595-00($822mln).
  • In BoC matters, it yesterday announced plans to expand its Governing Council to seven with the addition of another external Deputy Governor. Current external Dep Gov Vincent will have what was a two-year term extended one year to Mar 2026. 
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  • USDCAD sits near unchanged on the day at 1.3552 off an earlier high of 1.3568, with CAD underperforming most peers despite further WTI gains.
  • The pair consolidates a climb since mid-week which has left it close to resistance at 1.3584 (50-day EMA), after which lies a key 1.3647 (Sep 19 high). It has moved away from support at 1.3473 (Oct 2 low) and the bear trigger at 1.3420 (Sep 25 low).
  • It has been a light week for Canadian data and that only picks up next Fri with both the jobs report and BoC Q3 surveys, leaving today’s focus firmly on payrolls.
  • Note heavy option expiry for today’s NY cut, mostly tilting lower: C$1.3350-73($2.2bln), C$1.3500-05($1.2bln), C$1.3530-45($813mln), C$1.3595-00($822mln).
  • In BoC matters, it yesterday announced plans to expand its Governing Council to seven with the addition of another external Deputy Governor. Current external Dep Gov Vincent will have what was a two-year term extended one year to Mar 2026.