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CANADA: USDCAD Close To Oversold, Trudeau Confidence Vote Ahead

CANADA
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  • USDCAD has slowly increased to session highs of 1.3447 but is still close to latest lows of 1.3420 seen overnight as the pair sees a continued headwind from equity strength.
  • The pair has resumed its downtrend with the earlier low stopping just short of support at 1.3413 (Feb 9 low), leaving it close to oversold conditions again. Subsequent support is seen at 1.3358 (76.4% retrace of Dec 2023 – Aug 5 bull run).
  • Option expiry for today’s NY cut is firmly biased higher, with 1.3485 (455mln), 1.3489 (250mln), 1.3490 (263mln), 1.3495 (330mln) and particularly heavy at 1.3500 (1.77bn).
  • CAD is one of the top performers on the day, aided by some USD strength after yesterday’s slide, although lags both the EUR and USD.
  • Today’s local docket sees new population estimates shortly (0830ET). Attention is more firmly on a no-confidence vote against Trudeau’s Liberal government today, although the Conservatives aren’t expected to received enough votes for it.
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  • USDCAD has slowly increased to session highs of 1.3447 but is still close to latest lows of 1.3420 seen overnight as the pair sees a continued headwind from equity strength.
  • The pair has resumed its downtrend with the earlier low stopping just short of support at 1.3413 (Feb 9 low), leaving it close to oversold conditions again. Subsequent support is seen at 1.3358 (76.4% retrace of Dec 2023 – Aug 5 bull run).
  • Option expiry for today’s NY cut is firmly biased higher, with 1.3485 (455mln), 1.3489 (250mln), 1.3490 (263mln), 1.3495 (330mln) and particularly heavy at 1.3500 (1.77bn).
  • CAD is one of the top performers on the day, aided by some USD strength after yesterday’s slide, although lags both the EUR and USD.
  • Today’s local docket sees new population estimates shortly (0830ET). Attention is more firmly on a no-confidence vote against Trudeau’s Liberal government today, although the Conservatives aren’t expected to received enough votes for it.