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CANADA: USDCAD Extends Climb Despite Modest Bottoming In Oil

CANADA
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  • USDCAD has pushed to fresh session highs of 1.4006. The latest lift is despite oil futures lifting off lows although the main story of the session remains heavy oil declines weighing on CAD after seemingly improved prospects of an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire.
  • It’s up from an overnight low of 1.3928 having failed to extend clearance of support at 1.3937 (20-day EMA). It’s back closer to Friday’s 1.4021 and resistance at 1.4037 (Nov 19 high), after which lies the bull trigger at 1.4106 (Nov 15 high).
  • BoC-dated OIS shows 31bp of cuts for the Dec 11 meeting vs 29-30bps seen Friday.
  • Can-US 2Y yield differentials meanwhile consolidate Friday’s late slip to -102.5bps vs recent highs of -95bps.  
  • Mfg sales showed a solid advance print for October today, with the wholesale equivalent due tomorrow. GDP remains in local focus on Friday although tomorrow also sees BoC Dep Gov Mendes speak on "Inflation at 2%: the role of monetary policy going forward" (text 0805ET).
  • Friday’s CFTC data showed CAD net shorts were only trimmed from 53.2% of open interest to 52.7% as of Tuesday, still close to the historically large 56% in Jul/Aug. 
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  • USDCAD has pushed to fresh session highs of 1.4006. The latest lift is despite oil futures lifting off lows although the main story of the session remains heavy oil declines weighing on CAD after seemingly improved prospects of an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire.
  • It’s up from an overnight low of 1.3928 having failed to extend clearance of support at 1.3937 (20-day EMA). It’s back closer to Friday’s 1.4021 and resistance at 1.4037 (Nov 19 high), after which lies the bull trigger at 1.4106 (Nov 15 high).
  • BoC-dated OIS shows 31bp of cuts for the Dec 11 meeting vs 29-30bps seen Friday.
  • Can-US 2Y yield differentials meanwhile consolidate Friday’s late slip to -102.5bps vs recent highs of -95bps.  
  • Mfg sales showed a solid advance print for October today, with the wholesale equivalent due tomorrow. GDP remains in local focus on Friday although tomorrow also sees BoC Dep Gov Mendes speak on "Inflation at 2%: the role of monetary policy going forward" (text 0805ET).
  • Friday’s CFTC data showed CAD net shorts were only trimmed from 53.2% of open interest to 52.7% as of Tuesday, still close to the historically large 56% in Jul/Aug.