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CANADA: USDCAD Reverses Most Of Tariff Jump, CAD Underperforms Other Majors

CANADA
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  • USDCAD has trended slightly lower today, currently at 1.4031 (session low 1.4010) having reversed most of Monday’s jump from 1.3985 to a multi-year high of 1.4178 on President-elect Trump’s tariff threats.
  • CAD significantly underperforms most G10 peers today. The impact from the tariffs threat still clearly lingers along with typical underperformance owing to its US-linkages amidst broader USD weakness plus equity futures giving back yesterday’s gains.
  • The technical trend points to further increases from current levels, with resistance drawn at that multi-year high, whilst support is seen at 1.3952 (20-day EMA).
  • Tomorrow is likely to see a quieter session with Thanksgiving but there is still the CFIB business barometer, current account and SEPH employment data. That’s before GDP data on Friday in one of the last two major releases before the BoC decision on Dec 11.
  • Tariff concerns have modestly weighed on near-term BoC pricing this week, with implied cuts building to 33bp for Dec from closer to 30-31bp after some stronger than expected recent data.
  • Can-US 2Y yield differentials at -102bps are little changed from yesterday's close off a low of -107bps, close to levels seen pre-tariff talk.
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  • USDCAD has trended slightly lower today, currently at 1.4031 (session low 1.4010) having reversed most of Monday’s jump from 1.3985 to a multi-year high of 1.4178 on President-elect Trump’s tariff threats.
  • CAD significantly underperforms most G10 peers today. The impact from the tariffs threat still clearly lingers along with typical underperformance owing to its US-linkages amidst broader USD weakness plus equity futures giving back yesterday’s gains.
  • The technical trend points to further increases from current levels, with resistance drawn at that multi-year high, whilst support is seen at 1.3952 (20-day EMA).
  • Tomorrow is likely to see a quieter session with Thanksgiving but there is still the CFIB business barometer, current account and SEPH employment data. That’s before GDP data on Friday in one of the last two major releases before the BoC decision on Dec 11.
  • Tariff concerns have modestly weighed on near-term BoC pricing this week, with implied cuts building to 33bp for Dec from closer to 30-31bp after some stronger than expected recent data.
  • Can-US 2Y yield differentials at -102bps are little changed from yesterday's close off a low of -107bps, close to levels seen pre-tariff talk.