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(U2) More Stable But Still Fragile

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Trend Structure Remains Bullish

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Cautious Risk Appetite Gains Momentum

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Key Support Still Exposed

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Canadian Rates Up More Than 20bps

STIR FUTURES
  • In another day of “reset the chart y-axis”, BAX futures implied yields are up more than 20bps in the red pack and with sizeable increases either side as well.
  • This leaves implied yields in the Z2 contract 190bps higher than 3mth CDOR (in turn already implying sizeable increases), whilst the Z3 contract is 225bps higher than the 3-mth. Both H3 and M3 contracts price in an additional 100bps of hikes than after the BoC decision three weeks ago.
  • Roughly supporting this, the OIS curve has 215bps of hikes for the six meetings left this year and almost 50bp for April.
  • Most of the move came earlier but was further supported by BOC Dep Gov Kozicki noting that the BOC is prepared to act forcefully to bring inflation down and that households are in better shape to handle hikes. Near-term inflation is seen higher than in the January forecast, with new forecasts due on Apr 13.

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