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Carlsberg (CARLB; Baa1, BBB+; S) Moody's Upgrade to Baa1

CONSUMER STAPLES
  • We already flagged after earnings in early Feb that Moody's upgrade was a potential on leverage that remained well in upgrade territory & strong medium-term guidance; https://marketnews.com/carlsberg-baa2-pos-nr-bbb-s...
  • Moody's has followed through with a one-notch upgrade to Baa1 stable, we said then that we saw little impact to spreads on a upgrade & that view is largely unch since - we see room for max single-digit tightening in parts of the curve noting most close comp's are higher/A rated.
  • There wasn't much new for us in Moody's note; it expects consumer sentiment to improve over next 6-12months (mgmt guidance is +1-5% organic EBIT growth in FY24). Leverage ceiling is unch for ratings at 2* (FY23 was at 1.47*) & Moody’s expects buybacks to be adjusted for future operating performance. CARLB’s current programme is DKK 1b in 1Q vs. 3.2b in buybacks last yr. Dividend pay-out ratio was left unch by mgmt at 50% with 3.6b this yr on proposed dividend.
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