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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessCarrefour (CAFP; Baa1, BBB; S) {CA FP Equity} 1Q results tomorrow morning
- French super/hypermarket operator Carrefour brings 1Q results tomorrow morning, sparse consensus (x3) looking for +6.5% growth (organic).
- Moody's affirmed it at Baa1 last month on assumption gross debt/EBITDA would fall from 3.5x to 3x post acquisition activity. Healthy cash on BS dismisses any liquidity issues, but weak margins with still expected headwinds in France retail & sizeable pay-outs; its targeting 5%+ growth in dividends ahead with this year seeing €700m in buybacks and ~€600m in dividends vs. expected €1.5b in FCF - all leave net downside risk on ratings/deleveraging path.
- We're particularly nervous for any French weakness given read-through to Elo/Auchan (NR, BB+; S) (52% of revenues, ~1% EBITDA margin). Analyst are already flagging weakness for Carrefour after food price deflation.
- Elo's new issue 28's looked close to a free-lunch on a 57bp NIC & >20bp negative basis on longer 5yr CDS; its come in only 15bps since pricing while secondary including shorter 27s and longer 28/29s have adjusted +50bps wider. Roll-down to 27's still attractive as is basis (5Y CDS at 261, +20 since pricing) but we again would flag potential rough earnings ahead when it reports 1H results (generally late July to August).
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Why MNI
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.