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Carrefour (CAFP; Ba1, BBB; S) {CA FP Equity} 1Q results tomorrow morning

CONSUMER STAPLES
  • On secondary; does trade more in-line with BBB names. Only curves that are still wider include one-notch lower Tesco & JDE Peet's & slightly higher rated Couch-Tard (reverse yankee with exposure to retail fuel margin vol).
  • Mgmt equity pay-out choices likely to drive rating action in near-term with FCF enough of a buffer; net debt is ~2x yearly FCF thanks to healthy $6b+ in cash. Fair warning 1H tends to be seasonally very weak (~ -€2b) on working capital.
  • Not a curve we have issue with here - view could change if see very weak guidance and/or cash use on acquisitions.

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