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Cash Bonds Richer, Futures-Linked 7Y Outperforming

JGBS

In Tokyo morning trade, JGB futures are stronger, 24 compared to settlement levels, ahead of 30-year supply.

  • Japan offshore investment flows were mixed in the final week of June. Offshore investors continued to sell local bonds, albeit at a reduced pace compared to the prior week. The trend remains for outflows from this space. We saw net outflows in 3 out of 4 weeks in June, while Q2 saw -¥3233bn in net outflows. Expectations around higher BoJ tapering bond buying plans may be headwinds for flows in this space. Regarding Japan's outbound flows, we saw local investors continue to sell offshore bonds. June saw firm selling in this segment, which was the general trend through Q2.
  • Cash US tsys are closed for the 4th of July holiday.
  • Cash JGBs are flat to 2bps richer, with the futures-linked 7-year outperforming. The benchmark 10-year yield is 1.6bps lower at 1.069% versus the cycle high of 1.101%.
  • Conversely, the swaps curve has bear-steepened, with rates flat to 2bps higher. Swap spreads are wider.
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