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US TSYS: Cash Bonds Slightly Richer After Yesterday’s Sell-Off

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America

TYH5 is 108-18+, +0-03+ from NY closing levels. 

  • Cash bonds are flat to 1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s heavy session.
  • Benchmark yields finished 3-7bps higher, with the 7-year leading.
  • Meanwhile, projected US rate cuts into early 2025 were steady to slightly lower vs. yesterday’s open (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.1bp, Mar'25 -11.7bp (-13.7bp), May'25 -16.0bp (-18.8bp), Jun'25 -23.4bp (-25.3bp).
  • There was little reaction to a flurry of mixed data: November posted improved home sales figures compared with a soft October but revised New home sales came in roughly as expected at 664k on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, up from 627k prior (upwardly revised from 610k). This follows data showing a 4.8% M/M increase in existing home sales in November to the highest level since March at 4.15M.
  • The headline durable goods orders figure of -1.1% M/M, the "miss" vs. -0.3% expected, was offset by an upward revision to the prior growth reading to 0.8% from 0.3%. Transportation equipment - a typically volatile category - led the decline, falling -2.9% M/M, with nondefense aircraft/parts down 7.0%.
  • Yesterday’s Tsy $69B 2Y note auction (91282CME8) came out on the screws: 4.335% high yield vs. 4.335% WI; 2.73x bid-to-cover vs. 2.77x prior. Today sees Tsy $28B 2Y FRN & $70B 5Y Note auctions.
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TYH5 is 108-18+, +0-03+ from NY closing levels. 

  • Cash bonds are flat to 1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s heavy session.
  • Benchmark yields finished 3-7bps higher, with the 7-year leading.
  • Meanwhile, projected US rate cuts into early 2025 were steady to slightly lower vs. yesterday’s open (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.1bp, Mar'25 -11.7bp (-13.7bp), May'25 -16.0bp (-18.8bp), Jun'25 -23.4bp (-25.3bp).
  • There was little reaction to a flurry of mixed data: November posted improved home sales figures compared with a soft October but revised New home sales came in roughly as expected at 664k on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, up from 627k prior (upwardly revised from 610k). This follows data showing a 4.8% M/M increase in existing home sales in November to the highest level since March at 4.15M.
  • The headline durable goods orders figure of -1.1% M/M, the "miss" vs. -0.3% expected, was offset by an upward revision to the prior growth reading to 0.8% from 0.3%. Transportation equipment - a typically volatile category - led the decline, falling -2.9% M/M, with nondefense aircraft/parts down 7.0%.
  • Yesterday’s Tsy $69B 2Y note auction (91282CME8) came out on the screws: 4.335% high yield vs. 4.335% WI; 2.73x bid-to-cover vs. 2.77x prior. Today sees Tsy $28B 2Y FRN & $70B 5Y Note auctions.