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Caution Dominates


Participants remain cautious to take risk after the release of minutes from the FOMC's March monetary policy meeting, which reinforced the perception that policymakers are determined to slam the brakes on stimulus. Many members were already leaning towards a 50bp rate hike last March but the outbreak of Russia's war on Ukraine discouraged them from taking that path.

  • Price action across G10 FX space follows a typical risk-off pattern, with high-betas losing ground and safe havens posting gains. That being said, volatility has been subdued and major currency pairs have held fairly narrow ranges.
  • The yen is getting some reprieve after a four-day rout against the greenback. While USD/JPY has shed ~20 pips thus far, its RSI remains in overbought territory and yesterday's low remains intact.
  • On the data front, Australian trade balance, EZ retail sales, German industrial output & U.S. weekly jobless claims take focus from here.
  • Comments are due from BoJ's Noguchi & BoE's Pill, Fed's Bullard, Bostic & Evans. In addition, the ECB will publish the account of its March monetary policy meeting.

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