CBA Spending Insights Show Another Solid Month For Retail

CBA household spending insights (HSI) for June rose 0.6% m/m and 3.9% y/y after 0.7% and 4.0% in May, in line with the inflation rate. The strength in June was driven by recreation and hospitality, both discretionary items. The series has a high correlation with the ABS’ retail sales series and in addition HSI retail spending was solid again in June in line with May.

• CBA observes that home ownership status is significantly impacting spending trends with renters down 0.9% y/y but mortgage holders up 1.5% y/y and owners +2.1% y/y.
• The per capita HSI rose 2.6% y/y, which would be negative in real terms.
• Goods expenditure fell 1% m/m in June after rising 1.4% to be up 3% y/y. Whereas services rose 0.1% m/m to be up 7.2% y/y. Retail spending rose 1% m/m to be up 4.1% y/y, while non-retail rose only 0.1% m/m but is up 5.1% y/y.
• While both essential and discretionary expenditure rose 0.3% m/m in June, in annual terms the former is stronger at 4.1% compared with 2.4%, as cost-of-living and rate pressures impact household budgets.
• The July data should give a timely read on whether tax cuts and other fiscal measures are supporting consumption.
• See report here.

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg/ABS