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CBI Price Expectations Return to Similar Levels to Mar'24 High

UK DATA
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UK CBI Industrial Trends Order Books Balance rose to -18 (vs -33 prior) in June, the highest level since March 2024, although still below the long run average of -13.

  • Expectations for average selling price for thenext three months picked up after cooling down in May, printing 20 (from 15 in May) - returning it to similar levels to the March 2024 high, and keeping it above the long run average of 7.
  • The CBI surveys manufacturing firms and hence this will be of importance to the part of non-energy industrial goods (NEIG) that is domestically produced. This pickup in average selling price expectation will be concerning to the MPC, particularly as NEIG inflation has been easing recently (while services inflation has remained more sticky). If NEIG starts to stabilise, rather than disinflating, services inflation may need to be lower to get inflation sustainably back to target.
  • Survey conducted between 24 May and 13 June, with 248 manufacturing firms responding.


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UK CBI Industrial Trends Order Books Balance rose to -18 (vs -33 prior) in June, the highest level since March 2024, although still below the long run average of -13.

  • Expectations for average selling price for thenext three months picked up after cooling down in May, printing 20 (from 15 in May) - returning it to similar levels to the March 2024 high, and keeping it above the long run average of 7.
  • The CBI surveys manufacturing firms and hence this will be of importance to the part of non-energy industrial goods (NEIG) that is domestically produced. This pickup in average selling price expectation will be concerning to the MPC, particularly as NEIG inflation has been easing recently (while services inflation has remained more sticky). If NEIG starts to stabilise, rather than disinflating, services inflation may need to be lower to get inflation sustainably back to target.
  • Survey conducted between 24 May and 13 June, with 248 manufacturing firms responding.