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CBR Leave End-2024 Inflation Forecast Unchanged, GDP Forecast Revised Higher

RUSSIA

The Central Bank of Russia has offered little in the way of new guidance in its policy statement. Below are some selected highlights from the document:

  • A judgement on the sustainable nature of emerging disinflationary trends would be premature.
  • Over the medium term, the balance of inflation risks is still tilted to the upside.
  • The main proinflationary risks are associated with changes in terms of trade, persistently high inflation expectations, and higher upward deviation of the Russian economy from a balanced growth path, as well as with a fiscal policy normalisation path.
The Bank also updated its macroeconomic forecasts:
  • 2024 GDP growth forecast at 1-2% (Prior: 0.5-1.5%)
  • End-year inflation forecast unchanged at 4-4.5%
  • 2024 average key rate forecast at 13.5-15.5%
See the full policy statement here and updated forecasts here. CBR Governor Nabiullina will hold a post-meeting press conference at 12:00GMT/15:00 local time.
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