MNI BRIEF: Japan Nov Sentiment, Outlook Indexes Rise

MNI BRIEF: China Nov CPI Slows To 5-Month Low Of 0.2% Y/Y

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1870 Mon; -1.39% Y/Y

MNI: China CFETS Yuan Index Down 0.36% In Week of Dec 6

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY13.8 Bln via OMO Monday

MNI BRIEF: PBOC Increases Gold Reserves

MNI JAPAN Q3 GDP REV +0.3% Q/Q; PRELIM +0.2%; MEDIAN +0.2%

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT PRELIMINARY DEC INDEX 74.0

CANADA NOV IVEY PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX 52.3 SA

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

CBR Statement Highlights System Stability, But Brewing Stagflationary Concerns

RUSSIA
  • CBR Statement: Worth noting we have no policy changes here, just economic observations more than anything:
  • The Russian economy is entering the phase of a large-scale structural transformation, which will be accompanied by a temporary but inevitable period of increased inflation.
  • Deposit rates are up significantly. This was instrumental in restoring the inflow of funds into fixed-term ruble deposits and stabilised household demand for cash.
  • Inflation:
    • Weekly estimates show that inflation has significantly accelerated since early March. Current price movements are largely driven by a surge in consumer demand for individual product categories against the background of higher uncertainty and rising inflation expectations, as well as the weakening of the ruble since the beginning of 2022.
    • Proinflationary risks have considerably increased and are now prevailing over the entire forecast horizon. In the short term, the effect of proinflationary factors is likely to be accentuated by high and unanchored inflation expectations. Over a longer horizon, the Russian economy faces considerable uncertainty regarding the speed and scale of the adjustment of aggregate supply in response to the recent increase in trade and financial restrictions.
  • Growth/Sentiment:
    • GDP will reduce over the coming quarters. This decline will be mainly driven by supply-side factors, thereby producing a limited disinflationary effect. The stimulus measures being adopted by the Government and the Bank of Russia will limit the scale of economic downturn.
    • Flash indicators, including the Bank of Russia’s business survey, suggest a deterioration of the situation in the Russian economy. A sharp surge in uncertainly weighs heavily on the sentiment and expectations of households and businesses. A considerable weakening in credit activity is expected in the coming months.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.