CBR Warns of High Uncertainty in Baseline Scenario

LOCAL NEWS

• CBR warns of high uncertainty in the baseline scenario, which depends on geopolitical factors and the economy’s ability to adapt to new conditions.
  • Cites further strengthening of external trade and financial restrictions as among the main risks to a more significant decline in the economy than forecast (initially -8-10% contraction). Also warns of contractionary pressures due to high risk premium in lending rates and tightening of financial conditions - TASS
• Pentagon says it does not believe Putin wants to take on NATO’s military due to extensive losses in its campaign in Ukraine. Experts further believe that, despite threats against Finland and Sweden at the start of the invasion, they are unlikely to be attacked for joining NATO. However, UN Chief Guterres says there was no possibility of a truce in Ukraine at the moment – Tass, Sky
• Germany say it may be able to cope with the boycott of Russian gas imports as soon as the coming winter, according to Economy Min Habeck.
  • “if we have full storage at year-end, if two of the four floating LNG tankers we have leased are connected to the grid and we make significant energy savings we can to some extent get through the winter if Russian supplies collapse” - BBG
• Russia imposes sanctions on over 30 EU, US, Polish & Singaporean companies in retaliatory move yesterday. Most of the companies targeted belong to Gazprom Germania including a ban on transactions and entry into Russian ports for vessels.
  • Polish company EuRoPol Gaz S.A., which owns the Polish section of the Yamal-Europe natural gas pipeline was also targeted. Germany said it was assessing its options in response to the sanctions – IFX, Sky