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Needle Still Points South


Yields Bounce as Equities Make New Monthly Highs


Heading North


Bull Rally Accelerates


Economists Survey Raises 2021 CPI Forecast To 4.9%

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  • USD/TRY trades +0.81% higher this morning on the back of the dismissal of three CBRT members, sending price action towards 9.20 in the early hours of the morning.
  • Prior to the announcement the cross rose +0.51% in yesterday's session, bucking broad USD weakness following US CPI and the FOMC minutes in a clear show of idiosyncratic TRY weakness and deteriorating sentiment ahead of next week's CBRT.
  • Further replacements will only serve to undermine CBRT credibility further and reflects Erdogan's frustration with the level of rates, which may lead many to price in a higher likelihood of a cut at the next meeting – although the bank's next move still remains highly uncertain.
  • Even though Governor Kavcioglu survived the ordeal, TRY should continue to depreciate in the coming sessions – bringing the 9.25-9.50 zone into play as the next upside target going into the next meeting.
  • Beyond CBRT matters, the FOMC minutes showed the Fed's readiness to begin reducing asset purchase by $120bn as early as the November meeting (broadly in line with expectations) - but the eventual rate lift-off timing remains a question mark.
  • Intraday Sup1: 9.0928, Sup2: 9.0653, Res1: 9.1883, Res2: 9.2657