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CBRT Expected to Hold Rates Steady at 8.5% (1200BST/1400 local)

TURKEY
  • The CBRT are expected to keep rates on hold following guidance in the March meeting statement that current rates are now “adequate” to support the economy. Sell-side are uniform in seeing rates held at 8.5%, though some analysts note that there is a risk of one last token cut ahead of the elections in May. With consensus gravitating around an unchanged decision from the CBRT this month, there are scant expectations for a notable market reaction to the decision .
  • Turkey’s economic confidence index rose to 102.2 in April from 98.8 in March, its highest level since October 2021, according to data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute. The rise was led by monthly increases in consumer confidence, real sector confidence and services confidence sub-indexes.
  • The slowdown in exports to countries outside of Russia and its neighbors is evident in the road transport statistics, Ekonomi report. Turkey’s road transports to the Middle East declined by 20% in Q1-23, contributing to an overall 4% decrease in export shipments compared to the previous year, according to data from the International Transporters Association.
  • President Erdogan and Russian President Putin are expected to speak at an opening ceremony of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant at 1130BST/1330 local. Erdogan had intended to attend the event in-person but will instead take part via video call after falling ill during a live television interview earlier this week.
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