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CBRT Minutes: MPC Sticks to the Script, Despite Price Rises

TURKEY
  • Overall, no major revelations, but little by way of market evidence to justify the CBRT's highly dovish reaction function.
  • In September, consumer prices rose by 1.25%, and annual inflation increased by 0.33 points to 19.58%. The rise was mainly driven by price increases in services and energy groups.
  • On the policy front – no major surprises in the statement. The CBRT reiterates its focus on transitory pricing dynamics due to supply-side factors and alludes to volatility in the near-term inflation outlook.
  • Notes the decelerating impact of the monetary tightening on credit and domestic demand is being observed & has started to have a higher than envisaged contractionary effect on commercial loans/personal loan growth.
  • Says sufficiently tight monetary stance to ensure the return of inflation to its downward trend once temporary effects disappear, will serve as a significant buffer against external and temporary volatilities in the context of inflation expectations, the pricing behavior and financial market developments
  • The repeated comment that "supply-side transitory factors leave limited room for the downward adjustment to the policy rate" seems to be the CBRT's attempt to anchor expectations – but given the bank's low credibility, the majority of the market is looking through this and expecting at least 100bp in cuts at the next meeting.
  • LINK: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN...

MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
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MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
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