MNI BRIEF: China Nov CPI Slows To 5-Month Low Of 0.2% Y/Y

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1870 Mon; -1.39% Y/Y

MNI: China CFETS Yuan Index Down 0.36% In Week of Dec 6

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY13.8 Bln via OMO Monday

MNI BRIEF: PBOC Increases Gold Reserves

CORRECTED-MNI: Fed's Hammack-Near Or At Time To Slow Rate Cuts

MNI JAPAN Q3 GDP REV +0.3% Q/Q; PRELIM +0.2%; MEDIAN +0.2%

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT PRELIMINARY DEC INDEX 74.0

CANADA NOV IVEY PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX 52.3 SA

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

CBRT Review (+200bp): Agbal Delivers The Goods - TRY In the Driver's Seat

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY drifts slightly higher at the open on marginal profit-taking post CBRT. Yesterday Gov Agbal delivered a 200bp hike (100bp above market) in a decisive move to rebuild CBRT credibility and re-anchor rising price pressures at a time when the marginal effectiveness of market-aligned hikes was diminishing – as noted in our MNP Preview.
  • This was a much-needed move to re-invigorate the policy tightening drive and deliver key stabilising catalysts to TRY through wider real yield/carry buffers. This was also complimented by decisive hawkish guidance towards further tightening if needed.
  • An interesting component was increased credit growth, despite recent hikes – showing more robust and proactive CBRT research into the drivers of the recent inflation spike which was encouraging. However, inflation is still expected to remain sticky in the next few months with a cyclical peak in April at 16.3% before moderating into the 15% range until ~September before tailing off sharply towards 11% into year-end.
  • This risks seeing Erdogan become more vocal on rate cut pressure, and may undermine some of the CBRT's hard won gains, especially on the currency front.
  • USD/TRY notched lower post-meeting as TRY real-yields soared, making the currency more attractive. This should see many revise targets below the prior reversal zone of 7.30, more firmly towards 7.00 in the near-term.
  • Delivering above market also eschews any questions about CBRT autonomy from Erdogan, and with the EU looking less likely to implement harsh Turkey stance in next week's EU summit – we may have a cocktail of positive near-term catalysts in the pipeline.
  • Intraday Sup1: 7.3113, Sup2: 7.2489, Res1: 7.4167, Res2: 7.4498
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.