CBRT - Sell Side Views

SELL SIDE VIEW

JPM: Inflation to be sticky in the 13-15% range for another six months. To restore credibility and persuade the local investors to de-dollarize, CBRT will need to provide a real interest rate of around 2% (17% policy rate) - slightly higher than what is priced.

Citi: Agbal's hawkish tone, combined with this year's current account deficit heading over 5% of GDP amid elevated inflation pressures - a 200bp rate hike is likely. Depending on exchange rate and price developments, further tightening cannot be ruled out.

TD Securities: Forecast 200bps hike of the repo rate to 17%, 50bps above consensus. Given their equivalence, repo and WACF will move in tandem. Risks are likely leaning in favor of a smaller cut, but we would consider a decision to hold a much bigger surprise than a larger-than-200bps hike. Market is positioned for some tightening of sorts, but it's difficult to say exactly how much.

Bloomberg Survey: Median estimate in a poll of 18 economists for +150bp one-week repo rate to hike 16.50% from 15%. Estimates ranged between hikes of 75bp to 200bp.