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CBRT Survey Shows Respondents Expect Tighter Policy in Next Year

TURKEY
  • The CBRT survey this morning sees 12-month inflation expectations at 40.23%, with 24-month expectations at 24.27%. Year-end estimates are at 69.94% this month. On rate hike expectations, the respondents revised their policy hike forecasts to foresee a hike to 15% in 12-months’ time, against a previous expectation of no change.
  • Current account deficit data for May came in narrower than expected, at a deficit of $6.47bln vs. Exp. Deficit of $6.76bln.
  • The Turkish bank regulator has amended a previous ruling that saw companies with high FX balance barred from accessing loan facilities – the new rules state that if these companies are not able to get TRY loans due to the new restrictions, and can prove that they have a net short FX position, then they will be able to use loan facilities going forward.
  • Dunya reports that the drop in the EUR/USD rate is negatively affecting Turkish trade in 2022, and has led to a $5.8bln drop in exports and $4.4bln drop in imports across the first half of the year.
  • Fitch are due to update their sovereign rating for Turkey after today’s close. Fitch currently rate Turkey at B+.
  • Foreign Minister Cavusoglu remains in Bali, Indonesia, attending the G20 foreign ministers meeting.

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