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CDU Polling Continues To Tumble Ahead Of Sunday's State Elections

GERMANY

Polling for the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) continues to decline ahead of state elections being held in Rhineland-Palatinate and Baden-Wurttemberg on Sunday 14 March.

  • While not crucially important in terms of the stability of the federal gov't, the votes are being viewed as a bellwether on public support for Armin Laschet, the new head of the CDU at the federal level, as well as on Chancellor Angela Merkel's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Rhineland-Palatinate state election poll :SPD: 30% (-1), CDU: 30% (-3), Green: 12%, AFD: 10% (+1), FDP: 6%, FW: 4% (+1), DieLinke: 3%. INSA, Fieldwork: 1-8 Mar. Chgs w/ 15-22 Feb.
  • Baden-Wurttemberg state election poll: Green: 35% (+1), CDU: 24% (-4), AFD: 11%, SPD: 10% , FDP: 10% (+1), DieLinke: 3%. FGW, Fieldwork: 1-4 Mar. Chgs w/ 1-4 Feb.
  • The CDU and its Bavarian sister party the CSU have yet to choose who will be the 'Union' party's candidate for chancellor in the September 2021 federal election. A poor set of results for the CDU could tip the scales of Union delegates towards CSU head and Bavaria's minister-president Markus Soeder. Soeder's popularity has climbed over the course of the pandemic, and is viewed as more of a shift away from the Merkel era. Conversely, Laschet is a close political ally of Merkel and would be viewed as the continuity candidate for the CDU.

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