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CEE FX: Risk-On, JPY Weakness Prompt Further Gains for CE3 FX

CEE FX
  • The firmer risk-on tone across markets combined with notable weakness in the Japanese yen has prompted some solid moves higher for EM/JPY crosses. 
  • Outperformance of CE3 FX (with CZK a notable standout following the above-expectations CPI print this morning) has led to >1% moves versus the yen, though we still remain some way off pre-NFP levels. 
  • Regional drivers have been few and far between today, with US inflation data and its implications on Fed easing solely in focus on Wednesday. 
  • A full technical update for EURHUF and EURPLN can be found below:
    • EURHUF continues to pull back from its recent highs. While the move lower is considered corrective, price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 393.53. A continuation lower would signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 388.82, the Jul 22 low. For bulls, attention is on a key resistance at 398.85, the Jun 14 high.
    • EURPLN maintains a firmer tone despite the latest pullback. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of initial resistance at 4.3044, the Jul 25 high. The break undermines a recent bearish theme and signals scope for a test of 4.3321, the Jul 2 high and the next important resistance. On the downside, key support is at 4.2671, the Jul 26 low. Initial support is seen at 4.2969, the 50-day EMA.
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