CEE FX: US Data Prompts Moderate Weakness in CE3 FX

The post-NFP spike in US yields and associated greenback strength has prompted moderate weakness across CE3 FX. While EURHUF has returned back to unchanged levels on the session, EURPLN reached a daily high above the 4.30 handle while EURCZK pierced 24.60. A full technical update can be found in the image below:

• EURHUF has pulled back from this week’s high of 393.35. Gains earlier in the week resulted in a breach of an important hurdle at 391.27, trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 12 high. A clear break of this line would signal scope for an extension towards 395.73, 76.4% of the Mar 12 - May 28 bear leg. On the back of the latest move lower, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 393.35. The next support is at 388.68, the 20-day EMA.
• The recent recovery in EURPLN has resulted in a break of resistance at the 50-day EMA at 4.2916. A clear and more sustained break of this average would signal scope for a stronger bounce and could open 4.3248 and 4.3441, the 61.8% and 76.4% retracement points of the Apr 16 - May 28 bear leg. To reinstate a bearish theme, the cross instead needs to trade through support at 4.2715, Tuesday’s low.
• EURCZK remains close to this week’s lows overall. Bears will eye additional losses past the Jan 8 low of 24.458 while bulls look for a rebound above the 200-DMA, which provides the initial layer of resistance at 24.805.