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CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary: USDRUB Trades To A Fresh YTD High

EMERGING MARKETS
  • EURHUF has found resistance at the 50-day EMA today - the average intersects at 358.55. The outlook is bearish and attention is on 350.88, the Jan 13 low. This is a key support where a break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 348.55, the Sep 16, 2021 low. A clear breach of the 50-day EMA is required to signal a possible reversal.
  • EURPLN recently tested support at 4.4828, the Feb 10 low - last week’s low print was 4.4826. Trend conditions remain bearish and gains are considered corrective with key resistance at 4.6013, the Jan 31 low. A clear break of 4.4828/26 would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 4.4503, the Jun 6 2021 low and 4.4360, the Jun 7 low from last year.
  • USDZAR has breached the Feb 10 low of 14.9815 plus a trendline support drawn from the Jun 7, 2021 low. However, price has yet to extend lower and reinforce the bearish significance of the break. An extension lower would strengthen a bearish case and open 14.8637, the Nov 9 low. A key short-term resistance to watch has been defined at 15.7559, the Jan 31 high.
  • USDTRY is firmer but still trading inside this year's range. The broader outlook remains bullish and price continues to trade above the Dec 23 low of 10.2512 that also represents the key short-term support. The 50-day EMA at 13.1809 represents an initial firm support. A resumption of gains and break of 13.9404, the Jan 10 high, would open 14.3729, the Dec 11 high. A breach of this level would expose 15.2645, 61.8% of the Dec 20- 23 sell-off.
  • USDRUB gains this week have resulted in a break of resistance at 80.4155, Jan 26 high. This confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend and signals scope for a climb towards 81.5675 and 82.3602, the 2.00 and 2.236 projection of the Feb 10 - 11 - 16 price swing. Major support has been defined at 74.2611, Feb 10 low.
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