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CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary: USDTRY Needle Still Points North

EMERGING MARKETS
  • EURHUF remains bullish following this week’s gains. The cross has cleared key resistance at 371.99, Nov 23 high. The move above this level reinforces bullish conditions and paves the way for a climb towards the 385.00 handle next and 386.05, the 2.764 projection of the Jan 13 - 24 - Feb 10 price swing. Support is seen at 371.99.
  • EURPLN has traded to a fresh trend high again today. This week’s gains have resulted in a break of key resistance at 4.7416, the Nov 23 high. This has strengthened the bullish condition and sets the scene for a climb towards 4.9307, the Feb 2009 high. Support is seen at 4.7172, Mar 2 low.
  • USDZAR remains above recent lows. The pair has recently challenged the Feb 10 low of 14.9815 plus a trendline support drawn from the Jun 7, 2021 low that today intersects at 15.2445. Price has yet to extend lower though to reinforce the bearish significance of a breach of these levels. A break of 14.9133, Feb 17 low, would likely trigger a stronger sell-off and resume bearish pressure. Key resistance to watch is unchanged at 15.7559, the Jan 31 high.
  • USDTRY remains below last week’s high of 14.6462 (Feb 24) however, the outlook is unchanged and is bullish. The pair last week breached the top of its range and this highlights potential for a climb towards 15.2645, 61.8% of the Dec 20- 23 sell-off. Support is at 13.7628, the 20-day EMA.
  • USDRUB surged higher again Thursday with sights on the 120.00 handle. In terms of support:
    • The Feb 24 high of 88.2670 is seen as a level to watch and marks a gap low point that has been created on the daily chart. Markets tend to fill gaps so it will be interesting to see when this gap is filled.
    • The area between the 20- and 50-day EMAs - 86.3332 to 80.4844 - represents a key support zone. The moving average set-up highlights an uptrend and any pullback ahead of the EMAs would initially be considered a correction.
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