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NBP Data Watch
CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary: USDZAR Remains Above Key Support Levels
- EURHUF remains soft and is trading near its recent lows. The 50-day EMA - at 360.34 - represents a key short-term resistance and trend conditions remain bearish. Attention is on 350.88, the Jan 13 low. This is a key support where a break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 348.55, the Sep 16, 2021 low. A clear breach of the 50-day EMA is required to signal a possible reversal.
- EURPLN maintains a softer tone. The rejection at 4.6013, Jan 31 high, signals a resumption of the downtrend. Attention is on the 4.5088 bear trigger, Jan 20 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 4.5010, the Sep 1 low. Key resistance is at 4.6013.
- USDZAR remains above 15.0669, the Jan 21 low. Trendline support, at 15.0651 today, remains intact - the trendline is drawn from the Jun 7, 2021 low. This line represents a key support and a break would strengthen a bearish case and open 14.8637, the Nov 9 low. While it holds, a broader uptrend remains intact and the downleg since late November last year is considered corrective. A short-term resistance has been defined at 15.7559, the Jan 31 high. A break would be positive.
- USDTRY remains in a tight range around the 20-day EMA. The outlook is bullish and price continues to trade above the Dec 23 low of 10.2512 that also represents the key short-term support. The 50-day EMA at 12.9558 represents initial support. A resumption of gains would open 14.3729, the Dec 11 high. A breach of this level would expose 15.2645, 61.8% of the Dec 20- 23 sell-off.
- USDRUB maintains a weaker tone and is trading lower today. The pair has probed the 50-day EMA at 75.5150. This average represents a key support and a clear break, if seen, would strengthen the current bearish cycle and signal potential for weakness towards 74.3819, the Jan 12 low. The bull trigger is at 81.4155.
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