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Celanese: FY23 Preview

BASIC INDUSTRIES


  • Consensus expects FY2023 revenue growth of ~ +14% YoY with EBITDA ~+8%. With meaningful exposure to Autos and particularly EVs the outlook will be closely watched. At 3Q the company was guiding for stabilising demand in challenging conditions.
  • Back at 2Q Celanese missed expectations, triggering a change to outlook negative at S&P (BBB-). This has left CE on the fallen angel watchlist since.
  • Markets found relief in Celanese’s better 3Q results which focused on deleveraging, with spreads rallying ever since. CE 5.337 29 currently sit at new tights.
  • While there is still some premium in CE relative to rating comps we would expect that to persist for a cyclical reverse Yankee issuer. We can infer that market expectations are pricing a downgrade as low probability currently.

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