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CEMEA Central Bank Policy Dominates Rates Price Action Today, SA the Exception

EMERGING MARKETS
  • Idiosyncratic central bank divergences continue to spark sizable moves in CEMEA today, most notably in Russia & Turkey - which have embarked on polar opposite trajectories in the past week.
  • TURKEY: TurkGBs stand +16-19bp higher today, with weakness concentrated in 5 & 10Y yields following threats of diplomat expulsions and larger than expected cuts from the CBRT last week.
    • Moreover, real rates compression, runaway inflation and increased dollarization continue to weigh on TRY assets into year-end and seem far from letting up at this juncture with another 100bp or larger cut expected at the next meeting.
  • RUSSIA: OFZs remain under bear flattening pressure this morning with 2-3Y yields up +13-16bp in response to a larger than expected CBR hike on Friday – with Nabiullina vehemently vocalising the bank's concern over the path of inflation.
    • 2Y yields are now up +100bp since the start of September, with markets still pricing in more tightening to come as hopes of a near-term moderation in proinflationary pressures dwindle
  • SA: SA stands as the notable exception to the trend today, rallying against the grain as markets await new data that could show a large net inflow of R21.9bn to local bonds vs the prior data reflecting a R99bn outflow.
    • 5Y & 10Y yields are most bid at -6.2bp & -4.3bp on the day, while the rest of the curve treads water in positive territory. The 10Y rejected the 9.90 level but will need to dip below 9.80 to break the current uptrend.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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