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Central Bank Decision - 2300GMT/1800ET.

PERU
  • All nine surveyed analysts expect an unchanged decision at 0.25% and to maintain the forward guidance of stable rate for an extended period.
  • At its December 10 meeting, the MPC stated that it "considered appropriate to maintain the highly expansive monetary policy stance for an extended period as long as the negative effects from the pandemic over inflation and its determinants persist."
  • They also reiterated that any further stimulus would likely come from expanding liquidity facilities and supporting credit markets, but not through additional policy rate cuts.
  • Real GDP remains 10% below the February (pre-Covid) level, however, most recent prints have come in ahead of expectations. Inflation partially reversed the upside surprise in November. Annual headline reading came in at 1.97%.
  • GS reiterate the reference rate has reached its effective lower bound. Given that both headline and core inflation remain below the demanding 2% target, and the output gap is still expected to close only around late 2022, MPC will remain on hold through late 2021 and start normalising monetary policy only when the level of activity is on a sustainable track approaching pre-pandemic levels.
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